Season Three
When The Ground Won't Stop Shifting
"I've never felt this much behind as a programmer. There's a magnitude 9 earthquake rocking the profession."
We overheard this at a coffee bar in late 2024. The person saying it wasn't panicking—they were trying to make sense of something everyone else seemed to be celebrating. The AI revolution.
What followed was a conversation between tech workers, business owners, and systems thinkers trying to navigate a world where intelligence is becoming abundant. Where the tools change faster than humans can learn them. Where yesterday's expertise becomes tomorrow's commodity.
But instead of finding answers about "which jobs will survive," they stumbled into something deeper: patterns that repeat across every major technology transition in history. Patterns the Amish figured out 200 years ago. Patterns visible in coal consumption during the steam engine revolution. Patterns about how humans actually discover what's valuable when the ground won't stop shifting.
The Three Rabbit Holes
This season follows three rabbit holes that emerged from that conversation:
First: How do you see what's needed before it's obvious? The mechanics of discovery—embedding in spaces, pattern recognition, cheap experimentation.
Second: What happens when intelligence becomes abundant? Jevons Paradox, the 100x democratization pattern, and why efficiency increases consumption.
Third: How do you navigate phase transitions without losing your mind? Why collective beats individual, and how relationships become the only defensible moat.
Rabbit Hole One: Discovery & Signals
How do you see what's needed before it's obvious?
The Central Question: There's the person who becomes the Walmart greeter and the person who creates YouTube videos teaching kids things a dad would. The difference between them isn't intelligence or imagination. It's access to the right signals to chart a coherent path.
But what ARE those signals? How does the YouTube dad see the need for father figure content while millions of others scroll past the same comments? How do you build the capacity to notice opportunities before they're packaged and sold back to you?
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S3 E01
The YouTube Dad Problem
12:53
Core Insight: The discovery question—you can't see needs from outside the communities where they exist.
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S3 E02
The Amish Method
10:58
Core Insight: Using mainstream society as beta testers—the 50-year test cycle for technology evaluation.
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S3 E03
Boredom as Infrastructure
13:02
Core Insight: Why you need space to notice—the infrastructure required for discovery.
Rabbit Hole Two: Efficiency & Abundance
What happens when intelligence becomes abundant?
The Central Question: In 1865, James Watt's steam engine improved coal efficiency 8x. British coal consumption didn't fall—it rose 18x. This is Jevons Paradox: efficiency increases consumption.
Now AI is making knowledge work radically more efficient. This won't eliminate jobs—it will explode demand for knowledge work in areas we haven't imagined yet. Every small business will have access to Fortune 500 capabilities. The question isn't "what survives?" but "what becomes valuable when intelligence is abundant?"
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S3 E04
The Coal Question
13:32
Core Insight: Jevons Paradox explained—why efficiency doesn't reduce consumption.
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S3 E05
The 100x Pattern
15:02
Core Insight: From mainframes to AI agents—the democratization pattern that repeats.
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S3 E06
When Intelligence Overflows
15:35
Core Insight: What becomes scarce when intelligence is abundant.
Rabbit Hole Three: Collective Resilience
How do you navigate phase transitions without losing your mind?
The Central Question: The Amish have survived every technological revolution since the steam engine. Not by rejecting technology, but through collective evaluation. Meanwhile, knowledge workers are optimizing individually—creating the AI blues: permanent anxiety from trying to personally survive a transition that exceeds individual adaptation capacity.
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S3 E07
You Can't Do It Alone
13:50
Core Insight: Why collective beats individual—this isn't motivational, it's mechanical.
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S3 E08
Participatory Value
13:50
Core Insight: The care work insight—value that requires participation to exist.
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S3 E09
Building on Shifting Ground
13:35
Core Insight: What to do Monday—relationships become the only defensible moat.
Themes Across the Season
- Discovery vs. Prediction: You can't predict which jobs survive, but you can build capacity to notice what's needed.
- Jevons Paradox: Efficiency doesn't reduce consumption—it creates new categories of demand.
- Collective Evaluation: The Amish model—use mainstream society as beta testers, modify technology to fit values.
- The AI Blues: Permanent anxiety from trying to individually survive a transition that exceeds individual adaptation capacity.
- Participatory Value: Some value only exists through participation—it can't be automated because it requires relationship.
Listening Guide
If you're feeling behind: Start with Rabbit Hole One (Episodes 1-3) on discovery and signals.
If you're trying to predict which jobs survive: Start with Rabbit Hole Two (Episodes 4-6) on efficiency and abundance.
If you're anxious and exhausted from trying to keep up: Start with Rabbit Hole Three (Episodes 7-9) on collective resilience.
Or start at S3E01 and let the pattern emerge.
Credits
Voices heard across multiple coffee bar conversations, late 2024:
- Karpathy — Senior programmer navigating the craft dissolution
- Maya — Business owner wondering what products survive
- Jordan — Systems thinker seeing patterns across transitions
- Alex — 10-person company owner trying to navigate practically
- Levie — Tech CEO articulating Jevons Paradox for knowledge work
- Elder — Amish community member (composite voice from research)
- Sage — Technology ethicist studying long-term patterns
Recording Location: Coffee bars across Richmond, VA and online spaces — Late 2024
Production: The Present of Work